AI Upsets the Apple Cart

The brilliant and prolific economist Tyler Cowen wrote a book in 2011 entitled “The Great Stagnation”. According to ChatGPT, the thesis of the book is that “the major driving forces of economic growth that characterized the 19th and 20th centuries, such as technological breakthroughs and innovation, have significantly slowed down. As a result, the current era is witnessing a "great stagnation" with limited advancements and economic progress.”

WELL - apparently Tyler has changed his mind. In this noteworthy post from March of 2023 he writes “AI represents a truly major, transformational technological advance.” and argues that we are now entering a new disorienting phase of “moving history”.

The whole post is extremely interesting and worth a read at his blog marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/03/existential-risk-and-the-turn-in-human-history.html

A favorite line is “AI is very likely to overturn most of our apple carts, most of all for the so-called chattering classes.”